Infrastructure Intelligence No. 07: From Capacity to Certainty

Energy. Power. Development. Capital. | October 13, 2026 | Issue No. 07

THE WEEK IN INFRASTRUCTURE

The infrastructure industry is confronting two increasingly connected challenges: how to deliver enough power for rapidly expanding demand, and how to move the infrastructure required to serve that demand through development, permitting and construction.

This week, both challenges came into sharper focus.

On October 9, FERC accepted PJM's proposed Large Load Registry while rejecting the core of its interim-service framework. The decision improves the region's ability to identify major new electricity demand but leaves important questions about service arrangements, capacity responsibility and regulatory jurisdiction unresolved.

Meanwhile, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026, introduced in the Senate on September 30, would reshape federal permitting, transmission siting and the allocation of transmission costs to data centers. It has not yet received a vote.

On the generation side, PJM accepted more than 2.1 GW of proposed storage and gas capacity into its Expedited Interconnection Track, while Google and Constellation announced an agreement supporting 890 MW of additional nuclear generation.

And across the development and capital markets, new projects and financing announcements reinforced the importance of moving beyond capacity announcements toward commercially executable infrastructure.

The central theme is becoming increasingly clear:

Infrastructure development is moving from securing capacity toward proving deliverability.

The question is no longer simply whether a project can identify land, power or capital.

It is whether those elements can be coordinated into an approved, financed, constructed and operational asset.

01 | THE LEAD

PJM Can Count the Megawatts. Serving Them Is Another Matter.

On October 9, FERC issued its order on PJM's large-load framework in Docket ER26-3515-000, the filing reported as pending in Issues No. 05 and No. 06.

The Commission accepted two pieces: PJM's definition of a large load as 50 MW or more at a single site, and the Large Load Registry, which will record each facility's location, ramp schedule and capacity supply. Both take effect October 12, the date PJM requested.

It rejected the rest. FERC turned down the Interim Resource Adequacy Service (IRAS), the requirement to designate new capacity, the Bring Your Own New Capacity rules and the proposal to exclude new large loads from the capacity demand curve.

IRAS would have let new large loads connect without matching new generation, in exchange for being curtailed ahead of other customers when the system is stressed.

FERC found that the proposed tariff appeared to place obligations directly on retail customers, to dictate which retail customers would be curtailed, and to set what amounts to a retail rate. Those are matters for the states. It also found that the framework appeared to discriminate against large loads. In a concurring statement, Commissioner Rosner warned that excluding curtailable loads from the demand curve could leave the capacity market signaling surplus while the region sheds demand involuntarily.

PJM has said it is reviewing the order with a view to meeting FERC's requirements while respecting the responsibilities FERC assigned to the states.

The decision is therefore a partial acceptance, not an endorsement of PJM's large-load framework.

The distinction matters.

PJM now has an accepted mechanism for understanding where major new electricity demand is coming from.

It does not have an approved mechanism for serving new large loads that arrive without matching generation. Who receives service, on what terms, and who bears curtailment risk remain open.

The larger regulatory issue extends well beyond PJM.

FERC has put a question back to the states:

Who decides which customers are curtailed when the grid cannot serve everyone?

The answer involves transmission rules, utility service arrangements, state regulatory authority, generation adequacy and customer economics.

Developer Takeaway

Developers must distinguish between several milestones that are too often treated as interchangeable:

A load registry is not an interconnection approval.

An interconnection study is not a commitment to energize.

A proposed service framework is not an approved tariff.

And a generation-development agreement does not necessarily establish when electricity will be available.

In PJM, the service terms for new large loads may increasingly be set state by state rather than in a single regional tariff. Projects should track the state proceedings where they are sited, not only PJM's filings.

The most credible large-load projects will be those capable of demonstrating not only how much power they need, but how that power will be delivered under enforceable commercial and regulatory arrangements.

Power availability must become power certainty.

02 | POLICY & GRID SECURITY

Senate Permitting Deal Could Reshape Infrastructure Development

On September 30, Senators Shelley Moore Capito, Mike Lee, Sheldon Whitehouse and Martin Heinrich, the chairs and ranking members of the Environment and Public Works and Energy and Natural Resources committees, introduced the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (S. 5653).

The bill addresses several challenges that have become increasingly consequential for developers: lengthy federal reviews, transmission siting delays, uncertainty surrounding previously approved permits and the allocation of infrastructure costs associated with large electricity customers.

Several provisions are of particular importance to energy and infrastructure development.

Existing transmission corridors

Work within existing rights-of-way, including reconductoring of transmission lines, would fall outside NEPA review. That could allow utilities to increase the capacity of existing transmission without new corridors.

Transmission siting and planning

The bill would expand FERC's backstop siting authority by removing the requirement that a line sit within a federally designated corridor. Neighboring planning regions would plan interregional lines jointly, with costs allocated to the customers who benefit. ERCOT would be exempt from these siting and planning provisions.

Data-center cost responsibility

The sponsors say the bill requires data centers to pay for all of their associated transmission costs. FERC would revise its transmission pricing policy so that data centers pay both the embedded and the incremental cost of transmission service, and states could set separate data-center rates.

Permitting certainty

The bill would set enforceable review deadlines, cut the time to challenge many approvals from six years to 150 days, and limit when agencies may revisit permits already issued.

Additional provisions address geothermal development, hydropower and mineral projects.

S. 5653 remains proposed legislation. It needs 60 votes in the Senate and then passage in the House. The Senate returns after the November 3 election, and Senator Capito has said she wants the bill to be the first vote. Its provisions could change significantly during negotiation, and passage is not assured.

Developer Takeaway

For infrastructure developers, permitting certainty can be as valuable as power availability.

Lengthy approvals increase carrying costs, complicate equipment procurement, delay financing and create uncertainty around commercial commitments.

At the same time, faster upgrades within existing transmission corridors could expand the number of sites capable of supporting generation, industrial facilities and major data-center campuses.

The data-center provisions reinforce a theme emerging across PJM, ERCOT and other electricity markets:

Large-load customers are increasingly expected to account for the infrastructure costs their developments create.

Developers negotiating large-load service agreements now should test their cost-responsibility terms against the possibility that this, or something like it, becomes federal policy.

The opportunity is not simply faster permitting. It is greater certainty that an approved project can actually be built.

03 | POWER & GRID

PJM Accepts Its First Expedited Interconnection Projects

On October 8, PJM accepted the first three projects into its Expedited Interconnection Track, together representing more than 2,100 MW of nameplate capacity:

• An 860 MW ENGIE battery-storage project in Crawford County, Pennsylvania, interconnecting at Wayne 345 kV.

• An 800 MW ENGIE battery-storage project in Morrow County, Ohio.

• A 455 MW uprate to LS Power's 810 MW Hunterstown combined-cycle plant in Adams County, Pennsylvania.

The projects are targeting commercial operation around mid-2029.

The track, approved by FERC in June, is for projects of at least 250 MW that have a commitment from a state siting authority and can begin operating within three years. PJM will accept up to 10 requests a year in 2026 and 2027 and expects each project to reach a generation interconnection agreement within about 10 months.

Acceptance into the track is not a completed interconnection agreement, final permitting or commercial operation.

The announced figures are nameplate ratings, not an equivalent amount of accredited capacity.

Developer Takeaway

The expedited process ties interconnection priority to project maturity and state sponsorship.

Projects capable of demonstrating site control, a state commitment on permitting, financing capability and a credible construction schedule may gain meaningful advantages.

But a faster interconnection pathway creates value only when the remaining development activities can keep pace.

Interconnection acceleration requires development acceleration.

DOE Issues Another Emergency Order for PJM

On October 12, the Department of Energy issued Order No. 202-26-50 under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, in response to an application PJM filed October 11.

Effective October 13 through October 16, the order directs PJM to dispatch specified units as needed to maintain reliability. It also authorizes PJM to direct backup generation resources to operate as a last resort before declaring an Energy Emergency Alert Level 3, or during one.

DOE cited elevated demand from unusually warm weather, a high rate of planned generator outages during the autumn maintenance season and numerous planned transmission outages. PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert and a Load Management Alert for October 13.

The order is precautionary. It does not mean customer outages occurred or that backup resources were dispatched.

Developer Takeaway

The event highlights the difference between long-term generation adequacy and immediate operating flexibility.

Backup generation at large facilities is increasingly treated as a grid resource that can be called on in an emergency, not only as on-site resilience.

Large electricity customers should understand how their facilities would be expected to operate during stressed grid conditions, including demand flexibility, onsite generation, backup systems and utility service requirements.

Emergency operating flexibility cannot replace a durable long-term power strategy.

04 | DATA CENTER / MISSION CRITICAL

Amazon's Homer City Plan Returns to the County

Amazon Data Services' preliminary land-development plan for the PIT100 Masterplan at the Homer City Energy Campus returns to the Indiana County Planning Commission on October 14.

The county received the plan on August 28. It covers property in Center and Black Lick townships, with Amazon Web Services identified as the anticipated end user. The application was tabled at the commission's September 9 meeting and appears under Old Business on the October 14 agenda. The county has posted the full application package for public review and is taking comments.

The site is the former Homer City Generating Station, Pennsylvania's largest coal plant until it closed in 2023, where Homer City Redevelopment is building a large natural-gas generating facility.

The filing remains preliminary.

It does not establish final development approval, utility-service commitments or a confirmed energization date.

Developer Takeaway

Former generation sites may become increasingly valuable for large-load development.

Existing transmission infrastructure, industrial land use and on-site generation can offer advantages over greenfield locations.

But Homer City shows that a brownfield energy site does not remove local review. Water, noise, emergency services and community benefits remain live questions at the county level.

Existing infrastructure can improve development feasibility. It does not eliminate entitlement risk.

05 | ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Google Backs 890 MW of Nuclear Uprates

Google and Constellation Energy announced on October 6 a 20-year power purchase agreement supporting about 890 MW of additional nuclear generation in PJM.

The agreement supports equipment and technology upgrades at 11 Constellation-owned nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Constellation expects to invest more than $4.3 billion, with the first uprate expected by 2028. Google says all 890 MW will be online before the end of 2032.

The companies also entered a separate 15-year agreement covering 2,700 MW from Constellation's existing PJM fleet.

That existing generation should not be confused with the 890 MW of proposed incremental capacity.

The uprates will still require engineering, construction and Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval.

The announcement follows the Amazon–Calvert Cliffs agreement covered in Issue No. 06. Together, the two agreements back roughly 1,080 MW of planned Constellation uprates with long-term technology-company contracts.

Developer Takeaway

Developers should evaluate existing generation facilities as potential sources of additional capacity.

Nuclear uprates, repowering, equipment modernization and expansion of existing facilities may offer alternatives to greenfield development.

They may also benefit from existing grid connections and established operating infrastructure, which shortens one of the longest paths in development.

Capacity optimization is becoming a form of generation development.

06 | EQUIPMENT & SUPPLY CHAIN

Flex Moves AI Infrastructure Into Factory-Built Modules

On October 12, Flex announced an expanded portfolio of prefabricated modular data-center solutions.

Its new AI Modules combine 800 VDC power racks, liquid-cooling distribution units and high-density IT racks into pre-engineered, factory-built systems. The line sits in Flex's Cloud and Power Infrastructure business, which Flex plans to separate into a new public company, Axiom, in the first quarter of 2027.

Flex says the approach can reduce deployment timelines by up to 50% compared with traditional construction.

That is the company's own figure, not an independently established benchmark.

The broader development implication is significant.

Moving more integration into controlled manufacturing environments could allow equipment assembly and site development to proceed in parallel, reduce onsite coordination and improve repeatability across campuses.

Developer Takeaway

Modularization is becoming more than a construction method.

It is increasingly a development and procurement strategy.

But a module delivered early is not capacity delivered early. Utility capacity, interconnection, site interfaces and commissioning still set the energization date.

The opportunity is to establish repeatable infrastructure designs that can be deployed across multiple projects.

The factory is becoming an extension of the construction site.

07 | CAPITAL & DEAL FLOW

energyRe Closes $815 Million for South Carolina Solar

On October 12, energyRe announced the closing of an $815 million financing package for five utility-scale solar projects in South Carolina, totaling about 360 MW.

The projects are contracted under 25-year power purchase agreements. Bank of America, CIBC and Santander supported the financing, with Bank of America as documentation agent and Santander as financial adviser to energyRe. The company describes it as its largest financing to date.

The transaction illustrates the continued importance of contracted revenue in supporting utility-scale investment.

Financing a portfolio rather than a single asset lets lenders evaluate cash flow, construction risk and project economics across several projects at once.

Developer Takeaway

Development rights create opportunity.

But financeability depends on the quality of contracted revenue, counterparty strength, technical readiness and execution risk.

For developers holding several projects at similar stages, aggregating them into one financing can lower transaction cost and improve terms.

Capital follows projects capable of translating development rights into contracted, executable infrastructure.

08 | THE INTERCONNECTION DESK

PJM

Large Load Registry Accepted, Interim Service Rejected

FERC's October 9 order changes the status reported in Issue No. 06, where the registry and IRAS were both pending.

The Large Load Registry and the 50 MW large-load definition were accepted, effective October 12. IRAS and the Bring Your Own New Capacity rules were rejected.

There is no approved mechanism for providing interim service to new large loads that arrive without matching generation.

Separately, PJM accepted its first three projects into the Expedited Interconnection Track (see 03).

These are distinct developments.

One concerns how major new electricity demand is identified and served.

The other concerns accelerating qualifying new generation and storage.

ERCOT

Batch Zero Remains Paused for Verification

Texas' Batch Zero process, followed since Issue No. 01, remains subject to the verification and audit ordered before affected data-center projects are permitted to advance.

ERCOT's September Board update states that the Batch Zero study process and final classification have been paused since August 3, and that energization of new large-load data centers and crypto-mining facilities of 75 MW or more is paused until the verification, audit and community-impact review are complete. ERCOT will file its Batch Zero Eligibility Verification Report with the PUCT by December 10.

October 12 was the response deadline for applicable State and Community Impact RFIs, introduced in Issue No. 03. That review covers onsite generation, water use, cooling and broader community impacts, and ERCOT expects to publish its report, coordinated with the PUCT, by December 10.

Developer Implication

Large-load projects should keep their technical, commercial and regulatory assumptions consistent throughout verification.

A project's credibility increasingly depends on demonstrating that its proposed load, infrastructure and development schedule are supported by evidence.

CAISO

Large Loads Initiative Approaches Decision Milestones

CAISO held its October 1 stakeholder meeting on the draft final proposal and posted the recording on October 8. Comments on the draft final proposal and draft tariff language are due October 15.

A separate meeting on the draft tariff language follows on October 19, with Board of Governors consideration tentatively scheduled for October 28.

The proposed flexible interim load interconnection (FILI) service remains important because it could establish a pathway to serve certain large loads before longer-term transmission upgrades are complete.

It is not yet an approved tariff mechanism. Nothing has been approved by the Board or filed with FERC.

Developers should weigh potential flexibility against curtailment exposure, operating requirements and the eventual path to firm service.

FERC

Broader Large-Load Proceedings Continue

FERC's October 9 PJM order should not be confused with the six Section 206 large-load proceedings opened in June and first covered in Issue No. 02.

Those proceedings examine regional large-load interconnection rules, transparency, reliability and protection against cost shifting. PJM's proceeding is in abeyance, with its response due November 16. FERC has not issued final determinations in any of the six.

The October 9 order concerns one PJM filing.

It does not establish a national large-load interconnection framework.

09 | ON OUR RADAR

PJM / DOE | October 13–16

DOE's emergency order remains in effect through October 16. Watch PJM's operational notices for whether backup resources are called.

Indiana County | October 14

The Planning Commission takes up Amazon's Homer City application, tabled in September.

CAISO | October 15

Comments are due on the draft final Large Loads proposal and draft tariff language.

CAISO | October 19

A separate stakeholder session on the draft tariff language. The translation of interim-service concepts into enforceable requirements will matter most to developers evaluating FILI.

CAISO | October 28

Board consideration of the Large Loads Initiative is tentatively anticipated. Board consideration is not FERC approval or implementation.

PJM | Large-Load Follow-Up

Watch for PJM's next filing after the October 9 order, and for state proceedings on which customers are curtailed first. The interim-service, jurisdiction and capacity-responsibility questions remain open.

FERC | November 16

PJM's response is due in its Section 206 large-load proceeding.

Congress | Mid-November

The Senate returns after the November 3 election. Watch for floor consideration of S. 5653, which needs 60 votes and then House passage. Its final form, and whether it passes, remain uncertain.

ERCOT | December 10

ERCOT's Batch Zero Eligibility Verification Report and its State and Community Impact report are both expected by December 10.

THE INTERFACE VIEW

Over the first seven issues of Infrastructure Intelligence, we have followed the industry's progression from identifying power to securing the infrastructure required to deliver it.

The market is becoming more sophisticated.

Developers are increasingly recognizing that land, generation, interconnection, equipment, capital and permitting cannot advance as separate workstreams.

This week adds another distinction.

Development progress is not development certainty.

PJM can establish a registry identifying major new electricity demand.

But that does not resolve how every customer will be served.

PJM can accept more than 2.1 GW of proposed storage and gas capacity into an expedited interconnection process.

But those projects still have to complete development and reach commercial operation.

Congress can introduce legislation intended to accelerate permitting.

But those reforms must first become law, and then be implemented.

Google can support additional nuclear generation.

But the physical improvements must still be engineered, approved and delivered.

Amazon can submit preliminary development plans for a major energy campus.

But local approvals and utility requirements remain.

And developers can secure significant capital commitments.

But financing must ultimately be converted into constructed, operating assets.

The common thread is execution.

The infrastructure industry has become extraordinarily proficient at announcing capacity.

The next competitive advantage will belong to those capable of demonstrating when that capacity will become usable.

That requires distinguishing:

Proposed capacity from approved capacity.

Approved capacity from financed capacity.

Financed capacity from constructed capacity.

Constructed capacity from reliably deliverable capacity.

For developers, those distinctions influence land value, entitlement strategy, capital commitments, equipment reservations, construction sequencing and the credibility of commitments made to customers.

The emerging development equation is becoming:

Site Control + Entitlements + Power + Interconnection + Equipment + Capital + Construction + Operational Readiness

Each component matters.

But their value depends on their ability to converge.

The next generation of successful infrastructure development will not be defined by the number of megawatts announced.

It will be defined by the number of megawatts delivered.

In infrastructure, execution is what turns capacity into value.

Interface Holdings and Development Firm

Building the Future of Infrastructure Through Strategy, Capital, and Integration.